Don't lock in a leader yet: When to expect NASCAR's title contenders to emerge

There’s a saying that has floated around NASCAR for ages: “The actual season starts after Daytona” or something to that effect. This is partly due to Daytona being its own animal with its own rules and prestige, but also due to the simple fact that it’s a superspeedway race — an outlier event. It’s impossible to gauge who the best teams out of the gate are at such a place. 

NASCAR’s decision to place drafting tracks back-to-back for the opening of the season pushes that idea to the third week of the year. While the wins count all the same in regards to the playoffs, the competitors won’t know who truly has the edge until Phoenix and Vegas are in the rearview. Speaking to media Saturday at Atlanta, 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion Chase Elliott echoed this sentiment, noting that it’s “totally fair” to say we won’t have a clear idea of who is leading the way until end of the March or beginning of April.

“By the time you get through Vegas, you’ll have a pretty good idea of what’s going on,” Elliott explained. “You’ve delayed it a week, basically with the second speedway [Atlanta] and the road course thing [COTA].”

In 2025, the choice to move COTA up to the third race on the calendar means the first somewhat ‘normal’ oval won’t be seen until Phoenix in Week 4,  and even that track is an outlier among ovals despite being the site of the season finale.

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Mobil 1 Toyota Camry

Photo by: David Rosenblum / NKP / Motorsport Images

The first intermediate oval (that hasn’t been turned into a pseudo-superspeedway) is Las Vegas, which sits as the fifth race track the series plans to visit in 2025. Excluding the reconfigured Atlanta since it now aligns more with Daytona and Talladega, this will be the latest into the season NASCAR has gone before visiting a traditional intermediate track since 1981. That year, the season opened with two road courses, the Daytona 500 and a short track race at Richmond.

Intermediate tracks are so crucial in seeing the true strength of the field due to the absence of the wildcard nature that is an inherit part of some of these other tracks. At Daytona and Atlanta, there are several drivers looking at it as their only shot to get a win due to the nature of pack racing leveling the playing field. Literally anyone can and sometimes do win, as evidenced by the many surprise victors over the years — even at the 500. And at a road course, specialists like A.J. Allmendinger and Shane van Gisbergen becomes favorites to win, but they’d been seen as shock upsets if they won just about anywhere else on the schedule. What makes a race like Vegas so critical is the fact that what works there works at several other ovals throughout the year as intermediate tracks still make up the majority of the Cup schedule. To be fast there means you’re likely to be a consistent player at the front of the field throughout the year. 

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Matthew T. Thacker / NKP / Motorsport Images

And recent history supports that, as the winningest driver in three of the last four seasons also won in the series’ early-season visit to Sin City. Larson’s ten-win season in 2021 began with a checkered flag in Vegas. Byron’s six-win season in 2023 — Vegas again. Larson’s six-win season in 2024: Yep, it started with a win in Vegas. And that’s because LVMS is your typical cookie cutter 1.5-miler and as stated, what works there also works at a lot of other circuits across the 36-race schedule. 

In the modern playoff format, consistent speed is no guarantee of a title as showcased by Joey Logano’s 17.1 average finish on his way to winning his third crown last year, but it certainly sets you up as the ones to beat. So yes, the 2025 NASCAR season may officially be underway, but the real contenders are likely not to reveal themselves for another few weeks.

Photos from Sunday of Atlanta